Movie: The Caine Mutiny - Evaluating The Performance Of A Government :: essays research papers

Movie: The Caine Mutiny - Evaluating the Performance of a Government Governments are an essential and important part to our everyday life, and without, there would be no control or leadership. Governments are sanctioned to constitute and systemize the interrelationships of the people with their divisional bounds, the relations of the people of the community as a whole, and the arrangements of the community with other political entities. In the movie, "The Caine Mutiny", a form of government plays an important role to everybody aboard the ship. There were certain hardships with the configuration of the government, and in this case, the government was the captain. Although the captain didn't go directly against the Naval Regulations, the crew thought that he was incapable of holding this position as captain. With all of this happening, it was hard for the sailors aboard the ship to appreciate the form of government and their leader. The constitution for many countries, hold the rules (may be written, or not written) to which a government must obey. In this scenario, the Naval Regulations were intended to be followed upon and consented to. If a government is fulfilling its basic functions, then it is properly following the constitution, but if it isn't ensuing the constitution, then the fundamental purposes aren't being achieved. Within the constitution, there is power granted to impeach the leader if he/she is not implementing their primary services. In the movie, we see captain Queeg as one who is incompetent of achieving his job as the leader. Captain Queeg can be easily compared with Charles III—king of England during the Revolutionary War. He was old, and powerful, and with authority, but also wrong. Captain's new position angered many sailors aboard the old battle ship with his strict and reserved mannerisms, and the way he handled many situations gave the sailors fair reason to be easily infuriated. Overall Queeg portrayed a very futile leader as head of the government on the ship. There are many possible risks that one can come upon if they decide to change governments. There is always the risk of a failed government which could be at the worst disadvantage to anyone and everyone. Once a government fails, it can easily be trampled over and picked upon by another country. The power can be lost by everyone in their country and can be difficult to gain back. The change in governments can also effect the people of the country, because it will most likely be at a disadvantage to some people because not everyone is easily satisfied. The support of people in a country can readily be lost and gone

Evaluating the Research Process Essay

In this week’s paper, I choose a peer-reviewed research article which explained the research process and what can be assumed from the study based on these particular questions given: How is the literature review used in this research; What are ethical considerations for data collection; What is the data telling us in terms of statistical analysis; Are the findings statistically significant; Do the conclusions match the results of the study; Do the conclusions answer the research questions in the definition of the problem; Are the conclusions appropriate; and Do I have enough information to make a decision on the effectiveness of the study and if so, is it effective? To explain the research process, there are a number of steps which has to be applied. The first step would be to identify the research problem coming up with questions that are important and reasonable for the study. Second, a research proposal should be composed including an introductory, a literature review, a re search design and method, a data analysis with protection of an individual’s topic, and a timeline. Third, a pilot study should be managed in order to expand and carry out data collection methods and alternate techniques. Fourth, coordinate a major research. Fifth, arrange an outline. The sole purpose of this study and the goals intended are to compare how effective structured Community Health Workers provide home visits, with the use of an intervention developed through-out a community established participatory research offering quality assistance through the WIC or the Women Infants and Children’s department visitations. These purpose for these visits are to prevent the growth of overweight and obesity during the infant stages through their primary years. A literature review is used to summarize the study, review it, and then determine what the outcome will be. The literature review is used in this research as a summary which explains how the study was substantial in  identifying the link between childhood obesity, serious health issues, psychological, behavioral, social consequences, and adverse physical. It also reports the importance of the mother’s obesity level and the mother body mass index (BMI). The researcher’s recruitment process included Hispanic pregnant women participants as their ethical considerations for the data collection. The participants and their data were kept confidential due to the fact that they were pregnant and being recruited during their third month of pregnancies by the WIC clinic. The individuals conducting the research recruit in a private room and they are enrolled in the study in the privacy of their own homes during the prenatal home visits. During this process written informed consents are signed and obtained for themselves as well as their newborns to participate in the study. These individuals are randomly selected into the control group up to their first prenatal visit is complete. This allows the data collector to stay blinded to the studies assignments. The fact that the data collector is blinded to the identity of the group participants, for each group provided there is an ethical consideration. In terms of statistical analysis, the data provides a table which informs the research group about the timeframe, what instruments were being used, the ecological level, the purpose of the measurements, the variables, and when and how it was collected. However, since the research is incomplete, and continues, the results are inconclusive. This research is conducted over the first three years of and infant’s life. Unfortunately, due to the continuance of the research, there are no significant statistical findings and there is no research study to draw a conclusion just yet. The projected conclusions are appropriate for this study, but there is a lack of information due to the fact that the study continues to go on. The study is designed to prevent childhood obesity because preventing obesity in infants and young children is a promising approach to reversing the childhood and adult obesity epidemic (reifsnider, mccormick, culen, szalacha, moramarco, moramarco, diaz & reyna, 2013). Being obese as a child has the tendency to be persistent while growing into the adult stages of life and have a greater chance at increasing the risk of cardiovascular diseases. The eating habits, exercises, and sleeping habits are all established while in the youth stages. These are methods that continue to effect quality of life, obes ity, and health for the duration of a child’s life. At this point and  time, I do not feel that there is enough information to make a decision on the effectiveness of the study because the study is incomplete. This study continues to recruit participants and has an estimated completion date of December 2016(reifsnider, mccormick, culen, szalacha, moramarco, moramarco, diaz & reyna, 2013). The research investigation has an extensive and broad span appropriate and potentially for the instantaneous spread across the WIC departments. They plan to reveal the results of how effective an ordinary population method would be in prohibiting obesity throughout the first 2 years of life as well as the involvements endurance from ages 2 to 3. This can be easily implemented and modified for many locations and various localities and will supply verification for strategy revisions to impact health throughout life (reifsnider, mccormick, culen, szalacha, moramarco, moramarco, diaz & reyna, 2013). References: reifsnider, E., mccormick, D. P., culen, K. W., szalacha, L., moramarco, M. W., moramarco, M. W., diaz, A., & reyna, L. (2013, 09 24). A randomized controlled trial to prevent childhood obesity through early childhood feeding and parenting guidance: rationale and design of study. Retrieved from http://www.biomedcentral.com/content/pdf/1471-2458-13-880.pdf

Music Comparison: Fanny Mendelssohn Hensel and Ludwig Van Beethoven

Music Comparison: Fanny Mendelssohn Hensel and Ludwig van Beethoven Inspired by Ludwig van Beethoven and the ideas of Romanticism, the new group of composers in music were born. One composer, Fanny Mendelssohn Hensel, grew to love composing music, like Beethoven. The child prodigies both delighted in learning and performing music at a young age. Hensel learned music from many different teachers, but Beethoven was taught by more known instructors. Although the two composers both lived in Germany, they created very different compositions.While Hensel and Beethoven have many differences between them, there are also similarities, which are sometimes over looked. Music was always a large part of both Hensel and Beethoven’s lives, beginning from when they were children. The composers grew up only four hours away from each other, yet in both households, they were composing music at a young age. The first person to teach Beethoven music was his own father. Hensel’s first teache r; her own mother.At the age of twelve, Hensel started writing her own music, while Beethoven was composing by eleven years of age. These composers started writing at a very early age, proving that they are musical geniuses. Considering the many teachers the composers had, it would explain how they could create such beautiful music. Beethoven had many noteworthy teachers while Hensel was taught by many lesser-known, but just as talented, educators. Once Beethoven’s father’s teachings had reached it’s end, he was taught by Gottlob Neefe.Neefe taught mainly the organ and compositions to Beethoven and made a comment saying that â€Å"If he continues like this, he will be, without a doubt, the new Mozart† Although his teachers helped him greatly, Beethoven gave his first performance before any educator had taught him, when he was seven and a half, at Cologne, a large city in Germany. Her parents first taught her what was normally expected from a child, but la ter Hensel was taught by tutors the aspects of music. Some notable teachers that Hensel studied under were Marie Bigot, Ludwig Berger, and Carl Friedrich Zelter.Hensel only performed once in public when she was twelve years old, from memory. Although she was very talented, Hensel’s father demanded that she never play music for a living, but maintain the role of a normal woman in their time. Hensel obeyed her father, but Felix Mendelssohn, her younger brother, was willing to help in her career. Mendelssohn was also musically talented and performed for the courts, sometimes playing Hensel’s works that she composed. Once when Mendelssohn was performing for Queen Victoria, she was very impressed and mentioned that the work â€Å"Italien† was her favorite.Mendelssohn then admitted that that was his sister’s work. Hensel often composed lieders, bagatelles, fugues, preludes, sonatas, and choral and instrumental ensemble music, showing her versatility of music th at she could perform and compose. One of her more famous works; â€Å"Oratorium nach den Bildern der Bibel† was a cantata. Another example of Hensel’s compositions is one of her lieders, â€Å"Swan Song†. Beethoven, though partially deaf in his late twenties or early thirties, composed chamber music, sonatas, symphonies, songs, quartets and more. He was almost completely deaf when Beethoven wrote his third to eighth symphony.Many of Beethoven’s works are more famous than Hensel’s, but his most famous symphonies are the fifth and seventh symphonies. The many works that Hensel and Beethoven wrote were different than each other’s, but Beethoven is often known to help inspire the Romantic period composers. These two composers inspire many others to write and perform music throughout the world. There are many similarities between the two composers, even if Beethoven died only twenty-two years after Hensel was born. The two were great composers an d musicians starting in childhood, increasing their knowledge of music early on. Though, they did not learn on their own.Many different teachers, composers, and musicians taught and influenced Hensel and Beethoven. These composers prospered greatly in their careers, expanding their knowledge more every day. Although Hensel and Beethoven have passed on, they will both leave a great footprint on music for generations to come. References Anonymous(n. d. ) Music History: Resource Center. Retrieved from http://academic. cengage. com/music/book_content/049557273X_wrightSimms_DEMO/index. html Anonymous(n. d. ) Facts about Beethoven. Retrieved from http://www. buzzle. com/articles/facts-about-beethoven. html Anonymous(n. d. ) Fanny Mendelssohn Hensel, 1805-1847.Retrieved from http://lcweb2. loc. gov/diglib/ihas/loc. natlib. ihas. 200156440/default. html Anonymous(n. d. ) Biography: Beethoven’s Life. Retrieved from http://www. lvbeethoven. com/Bio/BiographyLudwig. html Estrella, E. (n . d. ) Profile of Fanny Mendelssohn Hensel. Retrieved from http://musiced. about. com/od/famousmusicians1/p/fmendelssohn. htm? rd=1 Estrella, E. (n. d. ) Profile of Ludwig van Beethoven. Retrieved from http://musiced. about. com/od/classicalmusicians/p/beethoven. htm Estrella, E. (n. d. ) Music of the Romantic Period. Retrieved from http://musiced. about. com/od/historyofmusic/a/romanticmusic. htm? rd=1

Finding The Blessing Of God In Cancer Essay

The concept of death and the association journey towards this state has been the focus of intense interest among psychologists, clinicians and therapists for the last few decades. Efforts towards a better understanding of the psychological side of death and dying have been mostly due to the significant increase in the number of case of physician-assisted suicide, as well as spiritual awareness and religiosity. There are currently an increasing number of reports that link spirituality and healing (O’Mahony et al. , 2005). Analysis of the psychological and spiritual condition of terminally ill patients, as well as their immediate family relatives, will provide a means to better understand the dynamic conditions that may be associated with their journey to the end of life. When a patient is informed by his physician that he has cancer, his life suddenly changes in an instant. The patient’s state of mind is filled with both fear and hope, that maybe there is a cure to this and that maybe he will directly proceed to his last few months on this planet. In addition, a patient’s knowledge of having cancer affects his immediate family (Lipsman et al. , 2007). Research has indicated that several factors have facilitated cancer patients in going through the difficulty journey of life with cancer. It has been reported that communication has helped patients express their worries and concerns regarding their new health condition (Bar-Tal et al. , 2005). The value of the family’s perceptions of cancer becomes an essential part of the mental and emotional condition of the cancer patient. It has been established that the attitude of the patient’s family has influenced the degree of hope and faith in the patient. As for the case of Jimmy H, a two-year old boy with terminal cancer, the parents of this young boy have been very supportive and encouraging, regardless of the knowledge that the radiation therapy were only palliative and were not actually curing the patient. Yet the parents never gave up on supporting their little boy and not even one of the parents showed a trace of doubt that things will turn out to be okay for their little boy, or for themselves as parents. The radiation therapist, Franklin, is amazed at the strength in spirit that this family has shown, amidst the grave knowledge that their little boy will be gone soon. This case study shows that amidst the hardships and fear of a serious illness like cancer, human beings still find a way to accept the truth and learn from it. The case of Jimmy H and his parents battling cancer is a story of resilience and hope, when the normal reaction of any other individual to a life of cancer is helplessness, hopelessness, anger and distress. The family of Jimmy H shows that death could be regarded as the end stage of a journey and that their own attitudes during this journey may be happy or sad, depending on what they chose it to be. It is the decision of Jimmy H’s family to live the rest of their son’s life with hope, faith and love, regardless of the pain that their son would experience during his last few months on earth. The constant prayers that the family has been doing have also helped them accept the truth that cancer is present in their son. There are reports that describe the influence of prayer on healing, with supporting medical explanations for the improvement of the conditions of both patients and the members of the family (Anandarajah, 2008). It is also possible that the family of Jimmy H understands their current situation from another point of view and this is through finding the mean of life, which is in their case not based on cancer, but on the opportunity to give love and care for one another, despite the shortness and difficulty of the condition of their family. It is thus understandable that even with cancer in the family, Jimmy H and his parents could still face their lives with calmness and hope, because they see that there is more to life than pain and suffering but the chance of sharing their lives with each other and providing themselves as good examples of perseverance to others as well. References Anandarajah, G. (2008). The 3H and BMSEST models for spirituality in multicultural whole-person medicine. Annals in Family Medicine, 6,448-458. Bar-Tal, Y. , Barnoy, S. and Zisser, B. (2005). Whose informational needs are considered? A comparison between cancer patients and their spouses’ perceptions of their own and their partners knowledge and informational needs. Social Science Medicine, 60,1459-1465. Lipsman, N. , Skanda, A. , Kimmelman, J. and Bernstein, M. (2007). The attitudes of brain cancer patients and their caregivers towards death and dying: A qualitative study. BMC Palliative Care, 6,7-17. O’Mahony, S. , Goulet, J. , Kornblith, A. , Abbatiello, G. , Clarke, B. , Kless-Siegel, S. , Breitbart, W. and Payne, R. (2005). Desire for hastened death, cancer pain and depression: report of a longitudinal observational study. Journal of Pain and Symptom Management, 29,446-457.

Games Theory Essay

In game theory, Nash equilibrium (named after John Forbes Nash, who proposed it) is a solution concept of a game involving two or more players, in which each player is assumed to know the equilibrium strategies of the other players, and no player has anything to gain by changing only his own strategy unilaterally. If each player has chosen a strategy and no player can benefit by changing his or her strategy while the other players keep theirs unchanged, then the current set of strategy choices and the corresponding payoffs constitute Nash equilibrium. Stated simply, Amy and Phil are in Nash equilibrium if Amy is making the best decision she can, taking into account Phil’s decision, and Phil is making the best decision he can, taking into account Amy’s decision. Likewise, a group of players is in Nash equilibrium if each one is making the best decision that he or she can, taking into account the decisions of the others. However, Nash equilibrium does not necessarily mean the best payoff for all the players involved; in many cases, all the players might improve their payoffs if they could somehow agree on strategies different from the Nash equilibrium: e.g., competing businesses forming a cartel in order to increase their profits. The prisoner’s dilemma is a fundamental problem in game theory that demonstrates why two people might not cooperate even if it is in both their best interests to do so. It was originally framed by Merrill Flood and Melvin Dresher working at RAND in 1950. Albert W. Tucker formalized the game with prison sentence payoffs and gave it the â€Å"prisoner’s dilemma† name (Poundstone, 1992). A classic example of the prisoner’s dilemma (PD) is presented as follows: Two suspects are arrested by the police. The police have insufficient evidence for a conviction, and, having separated the prisoners, visit each of them to offer the same deal. If one testifies for the prosecution against the other (defects) and the other remains silent (cooperates), the defector goes free and the silent accomplice receives the full one-year sentence. If both remain silent, both prisoners are sentenced to only one month in jail for a minor charge. If each betrays the other, each receives a three-month sentence. Each prisoner must choose to betray the other or to remain silent. Each one is assured that the other would not know about the betrayal before the end of the investigation. How should the prisoners act? If we assume that each player cares only about minimizing his or her own time in jail, then the prisoner’s dilemma forms a non-zero-sum game in which two players may each either cooperate with or defect from (betray) the other player. In this game, as in most game theory, the only concern of each individual player (prisoner) is maximizing his or her own payoff, without any concern for the other player’s payoff. The unique equilibrium for this game is a Pareto-suboptimal solution, that is, rational choice leads the two players to both play defect, even though each player’s individual reward would be greater if they both played cooperatively. In the classic form of this game, cooperating is strictly dominated by defecting, so that the only possible equilibrium for the game is for all players to defect. No matter what the other player does, one player will always gain a greater payoff by playing defect. Since in any situation playing defect is more beneficial than cooperating, all rational players will play defect, all things being equal. In the iterated prisoner’s dilemma, the game is played repeatedly. Thus each player has an opportunity to punish the other player for previous non-cooperative play. If the number of steps is known by both players in advance, economic theory says that the two players should defect again and again, no matter how many times the game is played. Only when the players play an indefinite or random number of times can cooperation be an equilibrium (technically a subgame perfect equilibrium), meaning that both players defecting always remains an equilibrium and there are many other equilibrium outcomes. In this case, the incentive to defect can be overcome by the threat of punishment. In casual usage, the label â€Å"prisoner’s dilemma† may be applied to situations not strictly matching the formal criteria of the classic or iterative games, for instance, those in which two entities could gain important benefits from cooperating or suffer from the failure to do so, but find it merely difficult or expensive, not necessarily impossible, to coordinate their activities to achieve cooperation. Strategy for the classic prisoner’s dilemma The classical prisoner’s dilemma can be summarized thus: Prisoner B stays silent (cooperates) Prisoner B confesses (defects) Prisoner A stays silent (cooperates) Each serves 1 month Prisoner A: 1 year Prisoner B: goes free Prisoner A confesses (defects) Prisoner A: goes free Prisoner B: 1 year Each serves 3 months Imagine you are player A. If player B decides to stay silent about committing the crime then you are better off confessing, because then you will get off free. Similarly, if player B confesses then you will be better off confessing, since then you get a sentence of 3 months rather than a sentence of 1 year. From this point of view, regardless of what player B does, as player A you are better off confessing. One says that confessing (defecting) is the dominant strategy. As Prisoner A, you can accurately say, â€Å"No matter what Prisoner B does, I personally am better off confessing than staying silent. Therefore, for my own sake, I should confess.† However, if the other player acts similarly then you both confess and both get a worse sentence than you would have gotten by both staying silent. That is, the seemingly rational self-interested decisions lead to worse sentences—hence the seeming dilemma. In game theory, this demonstrates that in a non-zero-sum game a Nash equilibrium need not be a Pareto optimum. Although they are not permitted to communicate, if the prisoners trust each other then they can both rationally choose to remain silent, lessening the penalty for both of them. We can expose the skeleton of the game by stripping it of the prisoner framing device. The generalized form of the game has been used frequently in experimental economics. The following rules give a typical realization of the game. There are two players and a banker. Each player holds a set of two cards, one printed with the word â€Å"Cooperate† (as in, with each other), the other printed with â€Å"Defect† (the standard terminology for the game). Each player puts one card face-down in front of the banker. By laying them face down, the possibility of a player knowing the other player’s selection in advance is eliminated (although revealing one’s move does not affect the dominance analysis[1]). At the end of the turn, the banker turns over both cards and gives out the payments accordingly. Given two players, â€Å"red† and â€Å"blue†: if the red player defects and the blue player cooperates, the red player gets the Temptation to Defect payoff of 5 points while the blue player receives the Sucker’s payoff of 0 points. If both cooperate they get the Reward for Mutual Cooperation payoff of 3 points each, while if they both defect they get the Punishment for Mutual Defection payoff of 1 point. The checker board payoff matrix showing the payoffs is given below. These point assignments are given arbitrarily for illustration. It is possible to generalize them, as follows: Canonical PD payoff matrix Cooperate Defect Cooperate R, R S, T Defect T, S P, PWhere T stands for Temptation to defect, R for Reward for mutual cooperation, P for Punishment for mutual defection and S for Sucker’s payoff. To be defined as prisoner’s dilemma, the following inequalities must hold: T > R > P > S This condition ensures that the equilibrium outcome is defection, but that cooperation Pareto dominates equilibrium play. In addition to the above condition, if the game is repeatedly played by two players, the following condition should be added.[2] 2 R > T + S If that condition does not hold, then full cooperation is not necessarily Pareto optimal, as the players are collectively better off by having each player alternate between Cooperate and Defect. These rules were established by cognitive scientist Douglas Hofstadter and form the formal canonical description of a typical game of prisoner’s dilemma. A simple special case occurs when the advantage of defection over cooperation is independent of what the co-player does and cost of the co-player’s defection is independent of one’s own action, i.e. T+S = P+R. The iterated prisoner’s dilemma If two players play prisoner’s dilemma more than once in succession and they remember previous actions of their opponent and change their strategy accordingly, the game is called iterated prisoner’s dilemma. The iterated prisoner’s dilemma game is fundamental to certain theories of human cooperation and trust. On the assumption that the game can model transactions between two people requiring trust, cooperative behaviour in populations may be modelled by a multi-player, iterated, version of the game. It has, consequently, fascinated many scholars over the years. In 1975, Grofman and Pool estimated the count of scholarly articles devoted to it at over 2,000. The iterated prisoner’s dilemma has also been referred to as the â€Å"Peace-War game†. If the game is played exactly N times and both players know this, then it is always game theoretically optimal to defect in all rounds. The only possible Nash equilibrium is to always defect. The proof is inductive: one might as well defect on the last turn, since the opponent will not have a chance to punish the player. Therefore, both will defect on the last turn. Thus, the player might as well defect on the second-to-last turn, since the opponent will defect on the last no matter what is done, and so on. The same applies if the game length is unknown but has a known upper limit. Unlike the standard prisoner’s dilemma, in the iterated prisoner’s dilemma the defection strategy is counterintuitive and fails badly to predict the behavior of human players. Within standard economic theory, though, this is the only correct answer. The superrational strategy in the iterated prisoners dilemma with fixed N is to cooperate against a superrational opponent, and in the limit of large N, experimental results on strategies agree with the superrational version, not the game-theoretic rational one. For cooperation to emerge between game theoretic rational players, the total number of rounds N must be random, or at least unknown to the players. In this case always defect may no longer be a strictly dominant strategy, only a Nash equilibrium. Amongst results shown by Nobel Prize winner Robert Aumann in his 1959 paper, rational players repeatedly interacting for indefinitely long games can sustain the cooperative outcome.

Art Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words - 2

Art - Essay Example It was hard to tell the reaction of others because all conversations were held to a whisper. The staff at the museum consists of a director and curators that specialize in their areas of expertise. In addition to the professional staff the museum hires college students trained to answer questions. While I viewed a great amount of exhibits at the museum, the exhibit that I was most drawn to was themed around impressionistic art about Italy form the 19th century. In addition to being highly artistic, the exhibit demonstrated an almost virtual experience of Italy. An added element of was that rather than being directly from Italian artists, the art was created by artists with an outside impression of Italy. In these regards, I believe the work that was presented had a more highly romanticized quality than it would had the artists been natively born in Italy. I contribute this to the fact that when individuals visit Italy they tend to visit tourist attractions and marvel at the scenery, rather than growing cynical at the historical nature of the country. The work I was most drawn to was Robert Duncanson’s A Dream of Italy. The painting was created in 1865 in Montreal after the artist visited Italy. The artist was the descendent of former slaves, and he had migrated to Cincinnati for a time where there was a vibrant art culture and only moved to Montreal to escape the racial strife brought on by the Civil War. The painting’s genre is a landscape work. The painting is Oil on canvas. It is symmetrical in that the mountain and tree protruding from the left of the landscape balance out the Italian villa picture on the right. The painting is well orchestrated in its depiction of an idealized Italian landscape. In great part Duncanson implements muted green and browns to illustrate the landscape in the foreground, while an ethereal blue depicts the distant scenery. The artist utilizes sharp line distinctions in creating a dynamic contrast between the fore-gr ounded scenery and the distant mountain background. In this respect, the artist is successful in creating a harmonious effect. The painting seems directly influenced by similar historical landscape works, and has been noted as having similar qualities to Albert Bierstadt’s Looking Down Yosemite Valley, California, which was created the same year. I was attracted to the work both by its vision of an idealized Italy, which I believe is its greatest artistic strength, and its overriding aesthetic mastery of landscape. From a contemporary perspective some individuals may criticize the painting as being somewhat mundane, as such landscapes have become cliche in the contemporary environment that has been inundated by graphic depictions. In this sense its aesthetic value as an entirely unique work of art is diminished, however its artistic mastery remains uncontested. Its ultimate cultural significance may be more closely aligned with Duncanson’s personal background as a desc endent of slaves who created the work in exile during the Civil War, than as a unique artistic object. In comparing this work to other works, one of the works from the course that most sticks out in my mind is Monet’s ‘Sunrise’. When considering Duncanson’s A Dream of Italy in regards to Monet’s work, I recognize there are a lot of similarities and differences. While both paintings consider the nature of an idealic scenery the way they express this imagery through artistic measures is strikingly different. In Duncanson’

Estimation of UAE population using Bayesian Theorem Research Paper

Estimation of UAE population using Bayesian Theorem - Research Paper Example A common use to which this theory has been put to is the development of time series forecasts for populations. In this case, this theory will be used to analyze the population data for United Arab Emirates. In most instances, the use of Bayesian theory is based on its mathematical framework ability that is able to provide inference on matters using probability (Hoff 116). In this project, the use of a Bayesian approach is adopted since through it the uncertainties that may exist in the model, data or even model parameters are integrated coherently in a consistent manner thus, allowing for easy inference (Gelman 75). The framework for this analysis will entail the adoption of a methodology for a time series forecasting that shall include stochastic volatility and autoregressive models fitted into historical timeline data about the population of UAE. Most instances that entail forecasting of population data apply a frequentist/classical approach, in which case, the Bayesian model offer s the best flexibility by its ability to specify uncertainties upon which forecasting can be performed (Ruggeri, Michael & Insua 80). Principles of Bayes Law Bayes theorem otherwise known as the Bayes law tries to express how the degree at which one believes in a subjective matter should change to be in line with evidence; this is known as the Bayesian inference. This theory was further developed by Laplace and got it published later on in the 1800s. The aim of this theory is to measure the extent of belief. Using this theory, the belief is either confirmed or otherwise based on the evidence collected. Hence, there is the initial belief or the prior that can be denoted by P (A) and then there is the evidence collected or the posterior denoted as P (B) and there is the quotient denoted as P(B/A) or P(B) which it shows how B supports the belief A (Leonard & John 69). The main assumptions made in the Bayes theorem are: Tests are not events, for example there is a difference between a m alaria tests and actually having malaria, the test is different from the event. It is believed that tests are flawed and hence can be challenged; they can detect things that don’t exist which are called a false positive, and miss things that exist; referred to as a false negative. The false positives skew the results; there is a high likelihood that the positive results are incorrect. Natural numbers are preferred over percentages. In summary, the Bayes theory gives the probability of an event given the test probabilities (Grover 120). A review of approaches to population projections The application of certain simple criteria can enable the obtaining of macro-level methods of population projection and its typologies. This may entail the use of simple extrapolations of the growth rates or size of the population, uncertainty approach and the methodology of the method. The estimation of the dimensionality of populations in the simplest forms always utilizes extrapolations while the uncertainty approach may be ignored or quantified by the use of probabilities. The Bayesian model utilizes both the extrapolation and time series analysis in the determination of end results for stochastic projections (Koch 41). The UAE population According to the UAE Department of Statistics (uaestatistics.gov.ae), the following figures were obtained from the census that was done in the years between 1975 and 2005. Year Total no. of Expatriates Total no. of Citizens 1975 356,343 201,544 1980 751,555